Five Key Trends That Will Shape Our Media World

Ahh fall. Mild temperatures, low humidity, fantasy football. After a long hot summer the team here at Luminosity is optimistically looking forward to enjoying a cool crisp autumn. As media gurus, however, it’s not all fun and cardigans for us.  Nope, we are charged with the awesome responsibility of keeping our fingers on the pulse, constantly scanning the landscape for insights based on shifting consumer tastes, media trends and cultural breakthroughs. We do this in service of our clients…and you of course.

Now this task used to be fairly straightforward. We’d attend a few Upfronts to get a feel for the fall TV calendar, scan the essential September magazines for pop culture trends, scope out the product roadmaps at the big tech firm and that was it. Simple, clean, easy…break out the apple cider. But now things are a bit more complicated. Convergence is a son of a gun. These days everything matters. TV ain’t what it used to be, print is struggling and digital is a beast to keep up with. There is really nothing we can ignore. Technology, politics, the economy and cultural happenings are muddying the waters and wreaking havoc on an already rapidly shifting media environment. Crazy right? Well don’t worry, we’ve got you covered. Go enjoy your fall foliage tour (you should really see Newport this time of year…it’s lovely). Below we have compiled a list of 5 key fall 2010 media trends to watch for. Enjoy.

1. TV Is Looking Up – Despite the wrath of media fragmentation, Television remains the 800-pound gorilla when it comes to media spending. The good news for Network TV execs is that advertising revenues are up vs. last year to the tune of over $8 billion based on the upfront season. Top tier cable networks (MTV, Discovery, etc) are also faring well. Good stuff. And what’s more, the content seems to be there to match the spending uptick. There are a lot of great shows out there for viewers to dig into and for the first time in years, Reality TV does not seem to be the dominant format. Returning hits like Glee, House, 30 Rock, Dexter and Modern Family should keep viewers happy. But we’ve got our eyes on a host of new programs that we think have legs. Those include “$#*! My Dad Says” on CBS, HBO’s New Drama “Boardwalk Empire“, NBC Thrillers “The Event“ and “Undercovers“ and Fox’s “Running Wilde“. Plus we will all be psyched to see Conan O’Brien make his triumphant return to late night when his show premieres in November on TBS.

2. The Box Office Will Rebound –  It was a cruel summer for movie studios with revenue expected to be down double digits vs. 2009 despite the boost that came from a blitz of 3D fare. We’ve commented here that movie marketers are not to blame, they’re making clever use of Social Media and other smart tactics to promote their products. So that means it had to be the content. Look for higher quality films to hit theaters over the next couple of months as we move toward Oscar season, including the much anticipated Wall Street sequel “Money Never Sleeps” (9/24) and “The Town“ (9/17) starring Ben Affleck and Jon Ham. And as you might expect, team Luminosity will be camped out at the theatre on October 1st to be first in line to see “The Social Network“, the so-called true story about Facebook and its founder Mark Zuckerberg.

3. The Mid-Terms Spell Doom For Democrats – Things will get ugly for democrats come November. Just how bad a blood bath they take could come down to which side comes up with the best marketing plans. Media outlets will enjoy the shot in the arm that will come from the increased spending associated with a big election season. But the smart money will continue to flow towards online media (Ad Age predicts web spending will double vs. the 2008 season) and in particular to Social Media. Sarah Palin has proven that she can make the whole country scramble to react to her tweets and Facebook status updates. So expect others to take a page out of her playbook. If the democrats can figure out a way to optimize their SEM and Social Media strategies to fire up their base they might be able to mitigate the damages.

Meanwhile, from a messaging standpoint, political ads will represent a daily dose of doom. After gaining some momentum early in the year the economic recovery has slowed. Unemployment remains stubbornly high and the housing comeback has faltered. So a lot of ads will be selling FEAR, which won’t be good for our collective psyche or consumer spending totals.

4. Interactive Will Continue To Come of Age – Google vs. Apple. Verizon vs. AT&T. Facebook vs. Foursquare. Relentless innovation in technology and digital applications will continue to add up to good times for consumers and confusion for marketers. This big news for fall is Facebook’s recent launch “Places“, which brought the ability to “Check in” to the masses. It’s too early to tell if location based social networking will truly catch on or if consumers will tire of it. We should know after the holiday season if marketers will truly be able to leverage it to provide tangible benefits to users beyond the gee-whiz cool factor it now provides.

The Daily Deal sites, however, have definitely proven their value already . Groupon‘s recent $11 million promotion with Gap was the tipping point for that service. Look for other major retailers to jump on board this fall and for Groupon and it’s competitors to explode into mainstream. With new smart phones launching everyday and the ipad marching towards critical mass, the possibilities are endless for interactive and mobile marketing. By the time the holiday season rolls around and the really big new products are unleashed (how about a touchscreen iMac or a Blackpad or an XBox 360 Kinect) things should really get crazy.

5. Professional Sports Will Sizzle – Recession, what recession? Tell that to the executives over at the NFL. The sports juggernaut continues to steamroll all other media properties. In addition to the $4 billion the league receives in TV rights deals, they have also secured some staggering sponsorship agreements. For 2010 those include a $1.2 billion deal with Anheuser-Bush and $720 million contract from Verizon Wireless. Things are going so well that the NFL is actually turning sponsors away at this point.

All other sports properties will pale by comparison but will still earn their share of media attention. Major League Soccer will continue to enjoy a World Cup halo throughout its fall season (I saw my first MLS game ever a few weeks ago, a sold out match pitting the New York Redbulls vs. Landon Donovan and the LA Galaxy). If the Yankees make the World Series again, Major League Baseball will rejoice (and Fox will take their ratings boost to the bank). We’ve got our eye on the NBA, however, to see if it can make a comeback. It will be interesting to see how much “heat” Lebron James will be able to generate when the season kicks off in October. Every sport has its heroes, but few have such a marquee villain. Like many others, I was annoyed by his ESPN free agency announcement,”The Decision”. But that didn’t stop me from being the first to secure my tickets to see the Heat take on the NJ Nets when they come to town on October 31st. I’m safely predicting that will be a Halloween spectacle no one will want to miss.

The recent article, What is it About 20-Somethings, in the New York Times has created quite a stir, at least with 20-somethings. Not a day has gone by that one of my friends hasn’t posted this piece on their Facebook Newsfeed. How narcissistic, I thought. We love reading about ourselves. And, as I fall right in the middle of this apparently precarious group, most of my Facebook friends are 20-somethings themselves. So, I fell in line with my “self-absorbed” generation and read on.

While the article takes a stab at objectivity, it is not hard to sense the author’s general feeling about Millennials. With phrases like, “They slouch toward adulthood” and generalizations such as, “young people remain un­tethered to romantic partners or to permanent homes, going back to school for lack of better options, traveling, avoiding commitments, competing ferociously for unpaid internships or temporary (and often grueling) Teach for America jobs, forestalling the beginning of adult life,” it seems clear that the author is concurring with the general sentiment about my fellow 20-somethings – we’re lazy. While I’ll try not to take offense to such an appalling generalization, but rather spend this post discussing the implications for marketers to this segment, I still feel the need to boost the morale of my generation and point out some people like – Mark Zuckerberg and Jawed Karim, who, while only two examples of Millennials, have shaped the way all people experience media and culture today. They are also examples of how cultural shifts and technological advancements change the way Millennials can and do shape their careers, relationships and life experiences. So, while it may seem like all your child does is sit and play on the computer all day, he could be the next Alan Sugar. Although, I admit that making a few individuals the example for my entire generation would be folly. And I digress.

What I want to focus on is how this article completely misses an entire, and important, segment of Millennials. While it does mention Boomerangers, it merely holds them in the same lazy and penniless light as we normally see. It completely ignores an entire segment of Boomerangers that was revealed to Luminosity through our recently published Boomerang Consumer Study. What our study found through the use of our Real-Time Lifestyle Map™, is that there is an entire segment of Boomerangers that hasn’t traditionally emerged. We have deemed them Savers. The Boomerangers in the study are college graduates, between the ages of 22 and 29 who are single, have full-time jobs and live at home with their parents. This group would fall into what Dr. Arnett in the New York Times article calls “Emerging Adulthood.” Our study, however, found that a large portion of these “emerging adults” take on a slew of typical adult responsibilities. The Savers are extremely cognizant about the fact that their situation isn’t traditional and admit that it is less than ideal. They, however, have moved home with their parents to save money and pay off debts as they work full-time jobs. A large portion of this group pay some form of rent to their parents and make many household decisions.

What are the implications of this group for marketers? They are emerging as an important and growing consumer group, yet are almost invisible due to the stigma normally attributed to Boomerangers. While anything from the recession to changing cultural norms are blamed for the increase of Boomerangers, there is also one other option – responsibility. As the New York Times article mentions, it now takes higher levels of schooling and a better understanding of technology to make it in today’s job market, and with school costs constantly on the rise and many Baby Boomer parents unable to pay, many recent graduates are finding that the responsible and intelligent thing to do would be to get a job, move back home, and pay off student loans and consumer debt. It would be a mistake for marketers to overlook this group that has surfaced as a mature segment of young adults making adult consumer decisions.

The New York Times article suggests that we may have to start treating 20-somethings “differently from full grown adults.” Perhaps in some cases this is true. Perhaps some of the generalizations often attributed to Millennials are justified. I’m sure that a lot of them are. But it would be unwise for marketers to group all 20-somethings under this umbrella. For one thing, in my individualistic generation, we don’t like to be under any generalized umbrella. And, perhaps, there in lies the key to this sticky subject. Who are 20-somethings? I think one characteristic is true of most of us – we are whoever we want to be. Whether that is the apathetic hipster or the over-achieving Boomeranger with the PhD. There is one thing we believe intrinsically – that we can be whoever we want to be. We no longer live within the confines of chronologically specific life achievements. We hope to be, as the article concludes with, “insightful, sensitive, thoughtful, content, well-honed, self-actualizing grown-ups.”

Watch for the second part of Luminosity Marketing’s Boomerang Consumer Study: Shopping Habits – Coming Soon!

Photo: A real, live Boomeranger from our Boomerang Consumer Study

I caught myself playing a fruit slicing game on the iPhone 4G for a good half hour the other day. The point of the game was to swipe your finger across the screen and slice fruit as they flew up from the air, and funnily enough I was addicted to it. Shortly thereafter I went on a game seeking binge. I went online and played the Avatar game for another half hour. I’m hardly a gamer. In fact, that was probably the last game I’d played since old school Super Mario World on the SNES system. But with all these new gaming platforms, who isn’t curious?

What I can safely say I am, though, is an avid Facebooker. I’m a little embarrassed to admit I don’t usually go more than a day without going on Facebook. But I’m not alone. Lately, stats have shown that time spent on both Facebook and gaming has gone up. In June, year over year, social media usage and online gaming went up nearly 7% and 1%, respectively, according to Nielsen.

Many companies are taking advantage of this social media/gaming surge. Game ads, role playing games, and games with product placement (think NFL) have been around for a while. But lately, there have been more and more clever game ads, most of which the game is an ad itself.

Let’s go back to our previously mentioned smart movie marketing—the movie SALT. We mentioned their clever use of posters around town. What SALT also implemented was a game on their website, a “Day X Exists” game, giving the player clues and missions to stop rogue spies. And what’s even better? They have a connect to Facebook option.

Speaking of social networks, social networks are even creating games. The women’s blog network, Sugar, created a game called “Retail Therapy,” in which users shop for brand name clothing to fill their own boutiques. Users can even pay real money to stock stores more quickly. And of course, this nifty game has a Facebook link option as well.

Finally, enter SoCo’s “Beat the Bartender” game, an integration of a brand game, directly on Facebook, with controls to monitor that the user’s profile is over 21 years of age as well as integration with their Facebook fan page. The point is to make a SoCo lime faster than the virtual bartender. I’ll bet that as someone over 21 years of age, as an avid Facebooker, and sometimes suckered-into-gamer, I could possibly spend some time on this site. Smart marketing.

Many more examples of games have been popping up—various World Cup Games, Cascadian Farm branding within FarmVille on Facebook, GE even released a 3-D virtual game to promote eco-friendly technology as well as target C-Suite consumers.

As social network usage and gaming increase, and games are more and more prevalent forms of advertising, it will be interesting to see which hybrids are successful and how those games can be measured and successfully converted into ad revenue. And to think of this all fitting into the mobile space is even more fodder for the imaginative mind.

I’m not a chef.  Nor have I ever taken a cooking class.  I’m what you would call a casual cook.  I cook to eat and I cook to relax.  Most of my attempts at cooking are very simple.  A few would be rated complicated.  I find that the process of taking individual ingredients and turning them into a dish that is more than the sum of its parts is very satisfying… and very tasty.

My love of cooking – and baking – has also caused me to start watching/reading more cooking and food TV shows, magazines, and websites/blogs.  I’ve found that I’m not alone in my increase in cooking and food media consumption.  A recent Harris Poll shows that 50% of adults ages 18 and over watch TV shows about cooking very often or occasionally.

But why do I watch these shows in the first place?  Honestly, a lot of it is pure entertainment.  There are contests (The Next Food Network Star), reality TV-styles (Cake Boss), recipes (30 Minute Meals), travelers (No Reservations), and many more genres.  There are so many content choices these days.  With two networks – Food Network and Cooking Channel –dozens of shows on other channels, dozens of magazines, and thousands of websites/blogs completely devoted to food and cooking, I’m always able to find something that I want to watch and that will inspire my own efforts in the kitchen.  Indeed, Harris Poll found that 20% of those watch cooking programs gain inspiration from these shows, food related articles or online postings but did not follow the recipes exactly.

What is next on the food and cooking content horizon? Mobile!  Many chefs have started releasing recipes and other content on mobile applications.  For example, Rachael Ray released a new iPhone app, Rachael Ray’s Tasty Bytes, which gives anytime, anywhere access to recipes.  The app also features a tool that creates one master shopping list based on your selected recipes.

… now if I could only find a good food and cooking app for my BlackBerry.

Source: Harris Interactive

The Washington Post Company sold Newsweek last week to Sidney Harman for what was reported to be $1. Harman, the 92 year old high end stereo system magnate, has no experience running a magazine, while Newsweek, founded in 1933 and owned by The Washington Post Company since 1961, is something of a news magazine institution. By purchasing Newsweek for $1, Harman will assume Newsweek’s extensive debt which was reported to be $30M last year alone.

This is merely the latest casualty in the war against print, which leaves one question that remains to be answered – what is wrong with the magazine model that an institution like Newsweek is failing? January - July Magazine sales figures were just reported and newstand sales slipped 5.6%. Newstand sales are an important indicator of  magazine vitality as it is the only venue that publishers can charge full cover price.

Of course, magazines have been hurt by the recession. They are not a necessity. They are more likely a luxury. But it seems the true enemy of print is the advent of Kindle‘s and iPad‘s, as readers can now get their news fix electronically. This blogger admits to being a technophile. I was an early adopter of the iPhone. I was an early adopter of Kindle, which I have since ditched in favor of the iPad. I can’t live without my technology.  It makes my life infinitely more enjoyable.

I still, however, love the old school forms of information. You can’t beat the intimacy and tactile experience of reading a magazine. You can’t match the ability to tear out an ad or an article that peaks your interest. Some of my most enjoyable moments have been spent reading magazines. Just look at how happy this guy is, reading his magazine. As of December 14, 2009, Magazine Death Pool reported that 367 magazines had folded. We need to do something! Let’s all stand up in solidarity for magazines and commit to buying 1-2 magazines a week.  At least, that’s what I will tell my husband when I buy my weekly guilty pleasures, People and US. I’ll tell him my purchases are a statement that magazines are here to stay.

As part of The Little Luxuries Project, Luminosity Marketing has commenced on a series of roundtable groups with targeted groups of consumers. Our December 2009 and March 2010 groups focused on how women feel about Little Luxuries. By inviting these women to chat with us and each other in a relaxed environment, we were able to learn why Little Luxuries provide a brief moment of escape and why that is so important in their lives.

“Everyone’s so busy in their own lives and give so much to other people,” says Michelle. All the women agreed that a little treat can mean so much more. It can be a way to relax and escape.

Watch the clip below to listen to our roundtable groups talk about how and why they relax and escape through Little Luxuries.

Click here to learn more about The Little Luxuries Project.

It has happened again. Somehow, magically, the trailer for Thor was leaked at Comic Con 2010 in San Diego. Before that in 2009 it was Iron Man 2. In 2008, X-Men Origins: Wolverine. See the pattern? Doesn’t it seem strange that each year at Comic Con – the biggest gathering of freaks, geeks, and comic book junkies – a trailer for a Comic Book movie is leaked?

I don’t think it is so much coincidental as it is smart. So smart. It is all about buzz. The people that attend any given Comic Con are going to be the target audience for comic book movies. It certainly doesn’t take a genius to figure that out. So, it makes sense that a special viewing of these trailers would take place in such a forum.Then, inevitably each year, a star trailer is leaked. Why? Is it because the attendees are members of some elite hacker organization, hell bent on providing this content to others who weren’t lucky enough to be at the convention? My guess is no. Allowing limited and perceptually illegitimate access to these trailers provides the perfect buzz that these movies want to create.

And these movie marketers understand another key behavioral fact about this demographic – they love to be in on it (whatever “it” may be.) As information junkies by nature, it only makes sense that this group loves a good leak. And so it spreads. Because it is not quite good enough that only those lucky enough to go to Comic Con got to see the much anticipated trailer, but they want their friends to see it who want their friends to see it. (Such is the nature of pirating.) But are the ‘leaks’ really leaks? That remains to be seen.

The web is talking about Thor now, and they will be talking about Thor when the “official” trailer comes out, and when the extended trailer comes out and when millions of fans are waiting outside the movie theaters of America on opening night. So, through apparently ‘unauthorized channels,’ Thor has created quite a stir. Much more so than if it had simply arrived as planned. And isn’t this exactly what a movie marketer dreams of?

And not to geekify myself too much, but I should admit that I was one of those, gathered around the computer screen, oooing and awwing at the awesomeness that will be Thor. I would, under normal circumstances link the leak for you, but since it is “unauthorized” I probably shouldn’t. But, you could just google “Thor trailer leak” and you will find plenty of results.

And next year’s leaked trailer? The all too obvious and much anticipated “The Avengers” (2012). Be on the lookout for the leak around this time next year.

NY Magazine just posted a diddy on an initiative that Gawker put in place where they attempted to highlight the Facebook privacy issue/debate.

In order to bring the privacy “plight” to life, Gawker assigned a photographer to in effect stalk Facebook’s Founder/CEO, Mark Zuckerberg for a few days. The resulting reporting was an incredibly boring detailing of Zuckerberg’s every day life.

As, mundane as the reporting was, it brings to light how much of a non-issue the Facebook “privacy” issue is. By choosing to participate in Facebook, the user is in affect relinquishing their privacy. They are putting themselves out there for the whole wide world to see regardless of what their “privacy settings” are.

Users tend to forget that what they “put out there” is the image they are portraying to the world. Think about it, what you put on Facebook represents brand me. Do something, take a look at what you have up on Facebook in a whole new light. What would someone who knows nothing about you think about you after reading your posts or purusing your pictures? What would your employer think? What would your perspective employer think? You might be horrified by what you find out about yourself based on your Facebook persona.

In fact, a story just broke today about how a guy created a program that was effectively able to troll Facebook for users personal information.

So, the moral of this whole story is that there really isn’t much privacy on Facebook and we should all keep that in mind when using it.

NEW YORK – Luminosity Marketing, a boutique media and marketing research firm in New York City announces that it has completed a pro bono donor research study for Peer Health Exchange to provide insight into their donation model. Peer Health Exchange trains college students to teach health education in public schools that lack health education and in which the majority of the students live at or below the poverty line. These students experience a disproportionate number of serious health risks ranging from teenage pregnancy to obesity.

By reviewing and analyzing the geography, marketing activities, and other key factors of individual contributors, Luminosity was able to provide recommendations to Peer Health Exchange on the most effective methods for garnering donations.

“Luminosity Marketing was pleased to assist in this important analysis,” said Candice Seiger, Associate Research Director. “By analyzing key factors to contributions over the last year, we were able to identify ways to optimize Peer Health Exchange’s fundraising efforts. We enjoy leveraging our healthcare research experience for a cause like health education and look forward to continuing to assist Peer Health Exchange.”

“The Luminosity team provided an extremely valuable service to our growing organization. We are fortunate to have their pro bono support,” said Madeline Kerner, Director of Outreach and Development at PHE. “We look forward to continuing our relationship with Luminosity.”

About Peer Health Exchange

Peer Health Exchange was founded to address a growing crisis among teenagers: teenagers today are engaging in risky behavior at alarming rates, harming their bodies and their futures. PHE recruits, selects, and trains college student volunteers to teach high school students a comprehensive health curriculum on topics ranging from decision-making and sexual health to substance abuse and nutrition.

Here at Luminosity we have to wonder, when is enough enough? Why do the TV and film executives keep repeating the same stories and formulas? On TV, do we really need to see three CSIs, two NCIS‘, two Criminal Minds, two Law and Orders, etc. Yes, the Shrek and Toy Story film properties were excellent but did we really need four Shreks and three Toy Storys?

Come on! We are creative people. There is a lot of talent in our country, why don’t we embrace it? We are now in a unique position with TV and film production where it is much more affordable to take more risks and fund more ideas when we produce shows. The days are gone when the “Big 3 Networks” had a stranglehold on TV viewing and the big movie studios controlled theater goers. Now the public has options. They want to see new and different and unique.

So, let’s seize this opportunity and give the audience what it craves.